Survivor 50 Odds Revealed: Early Favorites Emerge — But Who’s in Danger of Being First Out?
With “Survivor” marking its milestone 50th season, anticipation is higher than ever, and fans aren’t just debating strategy online. As 24 returning castaways head to Fiji, early winner odds and first-elimination predictions are already taking shape for “Survivor” 2026. This is giving viewers a glimpse at who’s favored to outwit, outplay, and outlast, and who could be the first torch snuffed. Check it out below in our “Survivor” spoilers.
We haven’t even had a chance to see any of these castaways in action on “Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans,” but there are already odds out on who will win it all.
Kalshi has the latest odds heading into the “Survivor” 2026 premiere next week. In kind of a surprise to me, especially with all of these big names coming back to Fiji, the person with a 79% chance of winning is Aubry Bracco from Kaôh Rōng, Game Changers, and Edge of Extinction.
It’s not that she is favored to win that shocks me, but how high that number is for her. Up next is Cirie Fields at 9%. Cirie, who competed on Panama – Exile Island, Micronesia – Fans vs. Favorites, Heroes vs. Villains, and Game Changers, is considered one of the best “Survivor” players to never win. Here are the other castaways’ chances of winning:
- Joe Hunter – 5%
- Jonathan Young – 4%
- Benjamin “Coach” Wade – 2%
- Charlie Davis – 2%
- Chrissy Hofbeck – 2%
- Ozzy Lusth – 2%
- Stephanie LaGrossa Kendrick – 2%
- Rizo Velovic – 2%
- Remaining Castaways – <1%
Now the big question: who will get voted off first on “Survivor” 50? That is something none of these castaways wants. They didn’t come back to the show, with all the hype surrounding it, just to be the first one to leave.
However, it has to happen, right? Someone has to be the first one to go, but who will it be? Here are the castaways with the biggest chance of being the first eliminated castaway from Vegas Insider:
- Angelina Keeley – 40%
- Genevieve Mushaluk – 30%
- Kyle Fraser – 17%
- Emily Flippen – 10%
- Q Burdette – 8%
One Final ‘Road to 50’ Episode Tonight
While we patiently wait for the “Survivor” 50 premiere next week, remember, there is one final “Road to 50” episode tonight on CBS. The network has been re-airing 10 classic “Survivor” episodes in anticipation of the season 50 premiere.
For the Friday, February 20, episode, CBS will be showing “Icarus Time” from “Survivor” 48. This features Kyle Fraser, Joe Hunter, and Kamilla Karthigesu, who are all returning for this new season.
“Survivor” 50 officially premieres on Wednesday, February 25 at 8 p.m. ET/PT. This will be a special three-hour premiere episode, but then shifts to 90-minute episodes every other week. New episodes will be available to stream the next day on Paramount+.
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