Survivor 50 is officially beyond the halfway point. There are 13 players left competing for the $1 million prize. With six episodes left this season, we can probably eliminate a few players from the hunt to win Survivor 50.
Sure, it’s still early for every player remaining to make a deep run, but it’s quite easy to see where Survivor 50 is headed. At this point, there are players who are just not taken seriously by the other players. There are players who are not getting nearly enough screen time so far to be in contention. Remember, Survivor is a narrative. We don’t see everything; we only see what the producers want us to see. In the first 49 seasons, that’s been a story in every season for the winner. We also have a few players who are just major threats who are in bad spots.
Heading into episode 8 on Wednesday, April 15, I highlighted four Survivor 50 players who basically have no chance to win this season.
Coach
I don’t know if I’ve seen anyone on Survivor 50 tank their chances of winning faster than Coach has this season. I know it’s been a long time since Coach played Survivor, but his gameplay has always been more style than substance. He needs the players around him to enjoy his presence and persona and actually want to play with him.
Heading into Survivor 50, it seemed like that was a possibility. Halfway through the season, that’s no longer a possibility. Coach rubbed Ozzy Lusth the wrong way almost immediately by stealing his key during the Journey. He tried to swim with Jonathan and got carried back to the beach in a boat while Mike White laughed along with the rest of us. Then, since the merge, Coach annoyed everyone at Tribal Council, threw a fit when he learned Christian Hubicki had been looped in on the Survivor 50 plan, needed a pep talk from Rizo Velovic to keep his head in the game, and then spent most of the day reciting poetry that wasn’t even haikus, like he kept saying!
Somehow, Coach has turned almost everyone on the beach against him, and they’ll keep him around because he’s no longer a serious player or threat to win $1 million. Right now, Coach appears to be someone you might want to sit next to at the end because you know he won’t get any votes.
Christian Hubicki
For most of Survivor 50 so far, I thought Christian Hubicki was a real contender to win. He’s had an incredible edit, a potential winner’s edit, so far. Then, the merge happened. Instead of entering the merge with a strong coalition as he potentially could have with Mike White, Angelina Keeley, Emily Flippen, and Rick Devens, Christian voted out Mike and Angelina. Now, he’s on the outside looking in at the seemingly strong alliance of Coach’s crew plus Rizo, Cirie Fields, and Ozzy Lusth.
It’s obvious that Christian has been playing pretty hard, but he’s also a huge threat simply based on how smart he is. If I’m Jonathan Young or Joe Hunter or even Coach, I don’t know if I like Christian sitting over there as one of the “middle people.” He would have the opportunity to pull Cirie’s group against Jonathan, Coach, and Joe to make a big move.
Likewise, if I’m Cirie, Ozzy, or Rizo, I’m thinking that I can use Jonathan, Joe, and Coach much deeper in the game and then pick them off before they get me. I like that option better than risking Christian staying in the game and finding a crack into Coach’s group and them flipping on me.
Christian is the biggest threat not tied to either of the bigger alliances, and for that reason, he’s probably headed home soon.
Chrissy Hofbeck
Unlike Christian Hubicki who has been everywhere this season and seems like a major threat to win, Chrissy Hofbeck is another player who just isn’t getting the screen time you would expect for a possible future winner. It’s not that Chrissy hasn’t been playing the game. I actually think she’s been playing well strategically. We’re just not seeing it on screen, and that’s frustrating.
My reasoning is nothing against Chrissy’s gameplay. I just don’t think the producers of Survivor 50 would allow a possible winner or even finalist of this season to participate in less than three minutes of confessionals through seven episodes. According to Nintendologist, that’s what Chrissy has had so far, which ranks last in terms of total confessional screen time among the remaining cast.
Tiffany Ervin
Tiffany Ervin is very much in the same lane as Chrissy, and that’s unfortunate. Tiffany ranks second-to-last among the remaining players in terms of total confessional time. In seven episodes, she has just under three and a half minutes of confessional screen time. Together, they are the only players with less than four minutes of confessional screen time this season.
Tiffany was targeted as the backup plan in episode 7, and it’s going to be really challenging to pull herself off the bottom in the next episode. She’s probably the most likely player to get voted out, but there are some twists on the way in episode 8. If Tiffany can survive the next vote, she’s going to need to find solid alliances in a larger group to make a run on Survivor 50. Unfortunately, even if she does, I don’t think she has a chance to win based on her lack of edit so far.
So, who can win Survivor 50? For me, I think there are nine players left with a chance to win:
- Rizo Velovic
- Cirie Fields
- Ozzy Lusth
- Jonathan Young
- Aubry Bracco
- Joe Hunter
- Emily Flippen
- Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick
- Rick Devens
